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JerseySmarts.com

Getting Polled in the Upcoming Governor’s Election

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A few days ago I was polled by Quinnipiac University regarding the upcoming gubernatorial election in New Jersey. For those of you who are not familiar with the popular candidates in the lovely Garden State we are choosing between the incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine and the prospective Republican candidate Christopher Christie. The poll lasted some twelve minutes and covered a variety of issues including who I voted for in the recent Presidential election and how I identified myself in terms of my politics.

Anyway, I bring this up because I saw the results of the poll on the Daily Record website a few days ago. Here are the results in their entirety as printed in the Daily Record:

TRENTON — U.S. Attorney Christopher J. Christie hasn’t said whether he’ll run for governor, but he’d start such a race slightly trailing Gov. Jon S. Corzine, according to results of a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

Corzine is favored 42 percent to 36 percent among 2,020 registered voters in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup against Christie. Much of the advantage results from the state’s overwhelming Democratic edge in voter registration, as Christie holds a 38 percent to 32 percent edge among independents.

The two had been tied in polls conducted in August and September. The new poll was done from Nov. 12 to Nov. 17, culminating on the day Christie announced he will resign his post on Dec. 1 — news that sparked talk of a long-anticipated gubernatorial run.

The poll also showed New Jersey disapproves of Corzine’s job performance by a 46 percent to 43 margin and say he doesn’t deserve to be re-elected by a 51 percent to 37 percent margin.

Those numbers are poor but improving, Quinnipiac pollster Clay F. Richards said.

“The long coattails of Barack Obama have reached down into New Jersey and helped Gov. Jon Corzine’s re-election prospects, at least for now,” Richards said.

The poll showed few voters are aware of Christie, despite his nearly seven years as the state’s top federal prosecutor. Seventy percent of respondents said they have not heard enough about Christie to have an opinion about him, compared with 11 percent who aren’t aware enough of the state’s governor.

“That will change as we move along and we get a race,” Richards said.

The poll’s margin of error was 2.2 percent.

I find it interesting that there is no mention of how these votes breakout demographically or geographically. For example, I was asked about my ethnic background as well as what type of area I live in – suburban, rural, or urban. Having studied polling and the ways that pollsters can manipulate the results of such questions, I’m surprised that there is no breakdown of percentage of voters located in urban areas who are pro-Corzine or pro-Christie vs. percentage of voters in suburban or rural areas.

Hmmm…trying to hide the gigantic gap in the number of urban Republicans and suburban and rural Democrats maybe? Everyone in the state knows that Democrats win in New Jersey because the heavily urban areas are so highly populated and are so firmly in the Democratic column that it’s not worth the money to campaign in those areas. I just wish that a respected polling group like Quinnipiac University would sort of put that information out there in the public domain as part of the results of their survey. Why not add a line stating, “As has usually been the case in New Jersey, of the 2,020 registered voters who were polled, 85% of them were located in urban areas. Of these voters, 95% identified as Democratic voters.”

We all know it’s true – just looking for some more truth and full disclosure in the media.

Checking in on Mt. Arlington’s Election Results

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As an engaged voter, I always like to take a look at the election results in the small town where I am registered to vote – Mount Arlington, New Jersey. The following election results are from the Roxbury Register (my comments below):

Republican Borough Councilman Bill Doran easily won re-election to the council Tuesday, and first-time Republican Dr. Stephen Sadow will also be joining the council in January.

Both Republicans bested Democrats Robert Silkes and David Karpman in Tuesday’s election.

Doran received 1,052 votes, while Sadow garnered 1,068 votes. Silkes received 920 votes while Karpman received 834 votes.

According to Borough Clerk Linda DeSantis, there were also a total of 513 write-in votes, which were not tabulated Tuesday night because they did not add up to enough to denote a winner. Republicans Steve Lardiere and Christopher Kelley both waged unsuccessful write-in campaigns, posting signs around the borough urging their election to the council.

Sadow will replace Republican KerriAnn Mulligan on the borough’s governing body. Mulligan did not seek re-election to the council.

In the race for U.S. President, Sen. Barack Obama received 1,034 votes while Sen. John McCain received 1,449 votes.

Of about 3,600 registered voters, a total of 2,483 cast votes Tuesday. That’s a voter turnout of about 69 percent.

Nice to see a voter turnout of 69 percent – that’s not bad in America, though I expected it to be higher given that this is a Presidential election year and given the historic race where both a woman and a black man were on opposing tickets. As is usual, Mount Arlington voted decidedly Republican in this year’s elections. I find it interesting that write-in candidates for Borough Council received 513 votes. That’s nothing to scoff at and since the write-in candidates were both Republicans, they certainly helped to close the gap between the Republicans and Democrats in this race. In fact, the Democrats only lost one of the elections by 149 votes – a very impressive vote tally for the Democrats in Mount Arlington.

Anyway, with all of the posts and discussion about the Presidential election I just wanted to comment on the local election, too!

The Drums of 2012 Start Beating Already

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With the Republicans still trying to figure out how to move forward, conservative columnist Robert Novak has suggested that the 2012 Presidential election may be the perfect time for former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich to return to national politics. From the article:

One Republican critic of Gingrich concedes that he has an “unlimited” energy flow and a constant stream of ideas, an important commodity in a party that appears to have run short of ideas during the Bush years. But there is widespread concern about what is described in the party as Gingrich’s deep “character flaws” that would be difficult to overcome in a presidential campaign. Nobody in Republican ranks, however, matches Gingrich’s dynamism.

This may be true, but I have to wonder how Gingrich fits into today’s political world. As detailed in this blog before, Gingrich has spent a good deal of time building his think tank around the idea of bipartisan support for certain political issues. And as all students of political history know, then-Speaker Gingrich brought a Republican majority back to Congress in 1994 with his Contract with America plan. I think this is what the Republicans are looking for in 2012, but they need more than a new Contract with America.

The reason that Gingrich and his team swept into office in 1994 was because a majority of Americans never really wanted President Bill Clinton to be elected in the 1992 election and thus dissatisfaction with his first two years as Commander-in-Chief was as easy campaign rallying cry. That sentiment does not exist right now with President-elect Obama and, frankly, I’m not sure that he’s going to lose momentum as quickly as President Clinton did in the early 1990’s.

So while certain conservatives may think that Gingrich is the choice for 2012 (and, by the way, I think that he’d make a fine President), the Republicans need to remember the circumstances that brought Gingrich and the Republicans to power in 1994. Plus they have to consider that Sarah Palin has widespread support among Republicans and conservatives as well as in the Midwest states. Yes, the ultra liberal northeast and California electorates absolutely hate Palin (though none of them can offer significant reasons for that hate), but the rest of America seems to be on her side. She’ll be a tough contender in 2012 if she decides to run.

Then you have guys like Rudy, Huckabee, Romney, and Jindal who can all make waves in 2012. Until then, though, be prepare to read more speculative articles like Mr. Novak’s – I think it’s going to be fun!

Voter Turnout Lower in 2008 Than 2004?

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There are many reasons why Senator Barack Obama became President-Elect Barack Obama, but was one of those reasons a higher voter turnout? Don’t count on it. Looking at Wikipedia’s page for the 2004 Presidential election we can see that the Bush vs. Kerry election saw some 121 million (121,069,054 to be exact) people turn out to vote. Looking at CNN.com’s coverage of the 2008 election we can count some 120 million (120,366,599 to be exact) people turning out to vote for the Obama vs. McCain contest.

Not only is that not an increased voter turnout, but it’s lower than the last election! Sure, there may be some absentee ballots that need to be counted and after a recount here and there the total number of voters in 2008 might go up a few thousand, but even if the total number of votes cast should rise some astronomical number to 125 million, that’s still NOT the bigger turnout that all of the pundits (and the politicians) expected for this election cycle.

This tells us a few things. First, there was NOT some large groundswell of voter motivation to go out and vote in the most historic election of our time. Second, if the electorate remained essentially the same, then the inherent voter apathy in America was not changed in this election (which is a damn shame). Third, those who voted in 2004 and then voted again in 2008 must have been more likely to be open to the idea of voting for a different party. Remember, McCain only lost by about 7 points (or about 8 million votes).

While that is a significant number of voters, let’s hope that history remembers this election in a realistic view. Yes, 2008 was an historic election for any number of reasons – but not for bringing out more voters to the polls or energizing the electorate.

Has America Stepped into a Post-Racial Society?

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YES! I was sitting at work today listening to CNN on Sirius XM and one of the commentators made the suggestion that while race was a factor in the Presidential election, it was not a limiting factor. In other words, while the old time news media and the old time race-baiters tried to use race in a fear-mongering context, there were citizens who voted for Senator Barack Obama simply because he is a black man! In a country where a few decades ago black children were sent to separate schools from white children and in a country where certain “civil rights leaders” are constantly trying to divide and conquer, this is a remarkable tribute to the nobility of today’s electorate!

Let me rephrase that last comment. America’s citizens have, by-and-large, moved BEYOND living in a society where the color of one’s skin decides whether or not they can advance in society. Finally – FINALLY – we might be in a post-racial society where a man or woman is judged by the content of their character and not their race. For my liberal-minded friends out there – this is what Martin Luther King, Jr’s dream was all about! And for my conservative-minded friends out there – imagine a world where affirmative action is taken off of the bargaining table due to its inherent racism and anti-lower-to-middle-class white leanings.

I distinctly remember bringing this issue up about 4 years ago in Graduate School and using Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson as my examples. Here are guys who made their entire careers off of the black vs. white conflict – real (Abner Louima) or imagined (the Duke case). Let’s hope to God that these two men are put out of business because America is now in a post-racial society.

With Republicans voting for Obama, whites voting for Obama, a woman earning 47% of the national vote for Vice-President, a black man winning the Presidency…it appears that it is finally time for us to move away from the race and gender-based issues of the 1900’s and get involved in some of the major issues of OUR time. The environment, sustainable living, quality education, American-style capitalism in a global market, advancing math and science in America, etc, etc. These are the types of changes that America has wanted not just for 8 years, but for decades.

We don’t want to rehash the same, tired arguments about the color of our skin any more. Enough is enough. In fact, a large number of the 2008 electorate (myself included) have existed on this planet for almost three decades while not ever caring about the race of our friends and colleagues. It’s nice to see that America has finally caught up!

Now how long until the old-fashioned news media concocts some story about how America is as racist as ever?!?