Last week’s Republican Presidential debate and the entrance of Fred Thompson into the race seems to have reshaped the landscape for the nomination, or at least that’s what the latest CBS/New York Times polling data suggests. I don’t think that the hard liberal bend on both of these entities plays into these particular numbers, so no feedback about that please. Additionally, those of you who know me know that I am 110% against these “scientific” polls because the truth is that there’s nothing scientific about them. That’s a handy little diddy I picked up in graduate school…of course the professor disagreed, but he had his ideology to push, too!
In any event, the news reports about McCain having a good debate are right on the money. The CBS poll shows him up a few points to 18% of Republican primary voters. This may seem like a small drop in the bucket compared to the front-runners, but for McCain, this is big news. He almost doubled his support by going back to what brought him to the Presidential dance in 2000 – straight talk about every issue. It’s a nice change from some of the blabbering that you can hear in primary debates.
On the other hand, Romney came in at just 14% support, which is not par for this course. Usually, Romney gets a few more percentage points on his side after each debate because he has what some people call the “Presidential look,” whatever that means.
The biggest news in the CBS poll is Thompson jumping to 22% of the primary voters supporting his bid for the Presidency. This is huge because Giuliani is only at 27% in this poll. The difference between these two numbers will likely fall in the “scientific” margin of error (don’t even get me started). Huckabee doesn’t register on the CBS poll, which is a shame because if you look at RealClearPolitics.com’s averages over time you see that he has enjoyed a burst of support in the last few months going from 0% to 4.5%.
That’s huge for Huckabee, though it won’t get him the nomination. At this point, it’s way too early to call a clear winner on the Republican side of race. For example, the Rasmussen poll shows Thompson is actually in the lead in this race.