Last night’s Iowa caucuses weren’t overly surprising (except Clinton taking third for the Democrats). Huckabee felt his “huck-a-boom” continue (I hate that phrase) and it appears that Obama was able to mobilize enough young voters and get enough second choice caucus-goers to move in his direction to take a big lead over Edwards and Clinton. And in case you haven’t heard, both Senators Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have bowed out of the Presidential race. If a Democrat ultimately becomes President, though, I hope that Joe Biden is kept in mind for a Cabinet post – he’s a decent guy. Dodd? Eh, I was never too hot on his bid.
In an odd circumstance, it appears that the story coming out of Iowa is all about New Hampshire. Given the close time frame between the two contests, all of the candidates spent last night in Iowa (except McCain and Giuliani) and woke up this morning in New Hampshire. For the Republicans, I think we’re in for a tough fight between McCain and Romney in New Hampshire and there is always the possibility of having the Huckabee surge continue and overtake either of the front runners. If Huckabee places a close second to McCain or wins, I think it’ll signal the end for the Romney campaign. The x factor here is whether or not the New Hampshire voters are swayed by Iowa and the inevitability of Romney going big-time negative with his campaigning.
For the Democrats, I think we’ve got an interesting situation going on. Clinton is not one to take losing in Iowa lightly, so the x factor for the Republican race carries over to the Democratic race, too. It is almost inevitable that the Clinton war machine will fire up and start throwing some attacks at Obama and Edwards now that she’s in 3rd place. How the New Hampshire voters respond to this will set the stage for the primary vote. And I think everyone needs to keep an eye on Bill Richardson. Governor Richardson claimed this morning that entrance polls showed him at 10% going into the caucuses last night. If this is true (and it seems true) and the Biden, Dodd, and disenfranchised supporters go to Richardson, then he could possibly poll at 13% – 15% going into the primary elections in the Western states, where he is expected to do well. Richardson taking a strong third place finish behind Obama and Clinton after Super Tuesday is over isn’t out of the question by any means.
And finally, there is the independent factor in these races, which I think benefits only Ron Paul. When I say independent, I’m talking about those people who are apolitical or those who despise Republicans and Democrats equally. Congressman Paul has made a small impact on the Republican race and I think that if he plays his cards right he can make a much bigger one in the Presidential race. He’s obviously not going to win the nomination, but he has the support and now he has the name recognition to drop out of the race some time in April and join with Michael Bloomberg and his band of independent, bipartisan thinkers. If this happens (and it seems somewhat unlikely), then I would bet a Ron Paul independent run could pull as much as 25% of the national vote, if not more.
But that’s the pipe dream stance in the overall picture. Now, add Richardson to the Bloomberg/Paul scenario and I believe you’ve got a bipartisan Presidential winner in 2008.
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